The chaotic symptoms of the climate and ecological crisis could distract from tackling root causes

The world is increasingly facing up to the climate and ecological crisis

To avoid the worst, we need to deliver the “rapid and systemic transformation” of societies globally.

This has to be achieved by mid century, only a few decades away.

Over that time, the world will become very different to today

Under the current trajectory, global heating could exceed the 1.5C limit by the 2030s and the 2C limit in the 2040s. Nature destruction continues apace.

Environmental shocks are becoming more frequent and severe. 

Their effects cascade through our globally-connected systems. Like crop losses in one place leading to price spikes that drive poverty, economic instability, and social tensions far afield. 

The chances of triggering tipping points in environmental systems – abrupt, potentially catastrophic changes – is increasing markedly.

The symptoms of the climate and ecological crisis challenge collective focus on tackling its root causes

Relentless crises and worsening social tensions could overwhelm our ability to rapidly decarbonise and restore nature.

We call this ‘derailment risk’. The risk that our ability to deal with the root causes of the crisis are undermined by the relentless symptoms of that crisis.

But times of crisis also offer opportunities for rapid, positive changes.

Developing the capabilities to better manage the balance of these destructive and constructive forces will become a key determinant of whether societies can ultimately avoid climate and ecological catastrophe. 

We must rapidly develop better capabilities to navigate a just transition to a better world through the deepening consequences of the climate and ecological crisis. 

Cohort 2040 is a ‘think and do tank’ that undertakes research on the chaotic risks to the transition and applies these insights through world-leading training and capabilities development methods.

Learn more about our work.